Hello,
I am writing this newsletter from Cuchara, Colorado — where the population hovers in the three figures — at a local establishment called the Dog Bar. The kind of place that sells beer in buckets and where the waitresses have bicep tattoos. There are licenses plates dotting the walls that would have been beneficial to find on the road while we were playing the license plate game a few days ago. The floor is a little sticky. The double doors at the entrance are flung wide open. Everyone is happy to be here.
Why am I here on a Sunday afternoon as my family hunts for vacation souvenirs in another town nearby? Well mostly because the house we’re staying at doesn’t have A/C, and we were all sweating up a storm. But mostly because the house we’re staying at doesn’t have internet and I was desperate to watch Jackson Koivun finish out his first win (of many, many wins) on the PGA Tour.
So I wrote down what I was watching and thinking as the 3M came to a close.
Name drops today: Junior, Ollie Schniederjans, Matt Wolff, Brookline, Big Cat and the Big Thespian.
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And now, onto the news.
A note on today’s newsletter. I failed at the end of last week to publish the second part of my two-part newsletter with final thoughts on the 2026 Open Championship (Part 1 is here). So I tacked those on here. Our Normal Club members can read the rest of my thoughts on that event and the fallout after the jump below.
We will also have a guest newsletter writer later this week as I close out family vacation. But I had to jump in here and deliver some thoughts on somebody I think is going to be (and already is) pretty special.
It is easy to get caught up in the hype with any of these kids. Nick Dunlap at the Amex. Gordon Sargent at the Masters. Luke Clanton during his remarkable recent run on the PGA Tour. And perhaps Koivun is no different than these. Certainly better players than him have won bigger tournaments than the 3M at younger ages than 21 and then gone on to do … not much else. There might be similar ups and downs for Koivun that those guys have had.
But it also feels a bit different than a lot of what we’ve seen for the last 10 years in terms of young American superstars, and I’d like to build a case for why I believe that to be true.
1. I keep going back to this quote he gave at the U.S. Open this year for why he waited a year to turn pro (he could have done so last summer).
I think my golf game was there. I just think I wasn't ready to leave college, and mentally just wasn't ready for the potential hardships and the travel and everything like that. But taking another year to really wrap my mind around that was good for me, and now I'm definitely ready.
Jackson Koivun
Yeah, you’re getting six figures in NIL money that makes the decision easier, but it still takes a lot of maturity and self-awareness to recognize this at the age of 20. The Tour is a war, and you better be mature enough to handle the ebbs and flows. We’ve seen that go the wrong way with recent young stars. I feel pretty good that’s not going to be the case here.
2. Another thing I can’t get out of my head — and I’ve referenced this several times — but one opposing college coach told me that Koivun is as competitive of a college player as he’s seen since early Tiger. Skill is one thing, and he obviously has a ton of it. But that quote, and the confidence with which it was said to me by a college coach who has seen pretty much everything, will stick with me for a long time.
This coach also predicted that he’ll be a top 20 player after one year on Tour, which seems like a lock at this point. He might be a top 20 player by the end of 2026 given that he’s 30th in Data Golf right now — right behind English and Lowry, right ahead of Min Woo and Akshay.
3. He is literally the best amateur Data Golf has ever tracked. Pedigree doesn’t always matter and doesn’t always translate (there are some misses on this list of mostly hits and mega-hits). But the flip side of that is that we’re talking about somebody who at his best was two strokes per tournament better than Ludvig’s best.
That seems … significant.
Everyone on this list who won early as a pro — other than Wolff — has ascended to at the very least become a star.
4. Players with a win and at least a 65 percent top 10 percentage since July 1, 2025 …
Scottie Scheffler
Jon Rahm
Jackson Koivun
And yeah, the sample sizes are much different. But Koivun can only top 10 in the tournaments he’s played, and he’s five for eight over the last year, including this victory. His finishes in PGA Tour events post-U.S. Open at Oakmont.
T11
T6
T5
T4
T23
MC
T10
Win
5. It’s true that the 3M is not the most meaningful victory in the world, but when you start winning bunched-up events (that Scottie noted are sometimes harder to win)by 3-5 strokes over three other major champions, that means something. That’s not a fluke. That’s different. It’s the lesser version of what Scottie has been doing at the majors (three major wins of 3+ shots). I value that a lot more highly than stumbling into a playoff or one-shot win over a gaggle of players.
If they played three more rounds of this tournament, Jackson Koivun would still emerge as the winner. And to do so with a bogey-free 66 to touch off a 127 weekend and on a day when the best player on the planet is firing 63 right at you? That’s quite different than anything we’ve seen from a 21 year old American recently.
I (jokingly) wondered if you had to pick for the 2027 Ryder Cup whether you would take him or Scottie. Obviously that answer is Scottie, but two things on that.
1. I bet it doesn’t feel like as much of a joke in 12 months.
2. How many Americans would you confidently take over him right now?
All of this represents a significant burden of proof. It’s not one thing. It’s numerous things stacked on top of one another to show to the jury.
I have been harping on this for several months now, but we are in a drought of young American superduperstars. I don’t mean 25 year olds. I mean 20 year olds or 21 year olds that have you feeling a little irrational about what’s possible. Maybe I just want to feel a little irrational about what’s possible.
What is the full list of superstar 21 year old Americans over the last 15 years? Spieth for sure. Who else? I would argue that Matthew Wolff got to that spot. Maybe not. But I can tell you that for these 15 seconds at Winged Foot on Sunday when he walked in looking like Junior with his backwards cap trying to hunt down the Big Thespian, I thought he was going to win four major championships.
Regardless, I’m excited for the Koivun era. I have been on him as a Ryder Cupper for a while now, and it looks as if he’ll make the Presidents Cup squad as well. Hell, all of this is just fun. We haven’t had a ton of fun over the last few years in pro golf so a (barely) 21 year old ballin’ out and head topping the No. 1 player on the planet for his first victory in his third pro start is easy — and I would even argue fine — to get completely irrational about. Who knows where that goes from here, but for today, just about anything is possible.
This post will continue below for Normal Club members (all 1,056 of them) and includes a few final scattered thoughts that I never published on the 2026 Open Championship.
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